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Model Y.

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There’s a lot of EV crossover antagonism advancing bottomward the pike but don’t apprehend accustomed gas-engine automakers to aback wrest the EV bazaar from Tesla.

In short: The Tesla Model Y will boss the EV crossover class because it’s the best accustomed EV cast – absolutely in the U.S.

With over 500,000 VIN registrations for the Model 3, it’s not a behemothic bound of acceptance to see the Model Y – with a starting amount of $39,000 – accumulation bazaar allotment and apperception allotment quickly.

Crossover antagonism has arrived

Yes, the EV crossover antagonism has already accustomed in the U.S., including the Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Kona EV, Jaguar I-PACE, and the Kia Niro EV – not to acknowledgment the 2020 Chevy Bolt (with an upwardly revised ambit of 259 miles), and the Nissan Leaf S Plus.

But, remember, all the aloft EVs are from acceptable automakers. They’re ICE agent makers first, EV makers second. And appropriate now EVs are a abroad additional in sales. Don’t accept me? Go appointment the U.S. banker lots of any of those car manufacturers. It’s carpeting gas-engine cartage (with a few exceptions in markets like Los Angeles).

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Still don’t accept me? Check out this sales blueprint from InsideEVs for the ages of September. The much-vaunted Audi e-Tron awash a whopping 434 copies, the Hyundai Kona EV 190, The Jaguar I-Pace, 160, Kia Niro EV 90 etc.

Even if you acquiesce for abridgement of availability because the aloft are aloof advancing on the market, accepted nameplates like the Nissan Leaf (in its accepted abundance as the 226-mile-range Leaf S Plus) and the BMW i3 are not activity gangbusters, with sales of aloof over 1,000 for the Leaf and bisected that for the i3 in September.

The alone EV absolutely in the active at all in September was the Chevy Bolt* with 2,125 copies sold, according to InsideEVs.

And the Model 3? Over 19,000 awash in September, about 8 times the abutting competition. It’s not antic to apprehend that the Model Y will column account numbers absolutely college than, for example, a Bolt EV. And apparently abundant higher.

Model S and X will bow to the Model Y, barrage to appear in summer

Meanwhile Tesla is ramping up assembly of the Model Y beforehand than expected.

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Regarding Model Y, we’re additionally advanced of agenda on Model Y affairs in Fremont, and we’ve confused the barrage timeline from abounding 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some allowance for advance there, but we’re assured about summer 2020.

–Elon Musk, October 24, 2019, third division balance appointment alarm (via Seeking Alpha).

And Tesla’s priorities are appealing bright as the aggregation gets accessible for Model Y production. In responding to a catechism from an analyst on the October 24 alarm Musk said:

The Model S and X are absolutely alcove — they’re absolutely alcove products. I mean, they’re actual expensive, fabricated in low volume. To be absolutely frank, we’re continuing to accomplish them added for affected affidavit than annihilation else. They’re absolutely of accessory accent to the future.

Musk additionally mentioned that Tesla will “build out added accessories for Model Y assembly at Shanghai.”

Production glitches are the X factor

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Of course, a billow in Model Y deliveries in, let’s say, aboriginal 2021 is abased on Model Y accomplishment actuality as accessible as Musk claims. And the CEO has a addiction for boundless bullishness and exaggeration aback it comes to expectations.

Barring an abrupt event, however, Tesla is added accessible now for all-embracing accumulation assembly than it was aback in July of 2017 aback it faced a year of assembly hell and was in the affliction of acceptable a high-volume car manufacturer.

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NOTES:

The Long Ambit and Performance variants of the Model Y —which you can adjustment now from Tesla’s website – alpha at $48,000 and $61,000, respectively.

*In the spirit of abounding disclosure, I drive a 2018 Chevy Bolt.

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Model Y.

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